* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 78 78 77 70 55 38 25 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 78 78 77 70 55 38 25 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 72 71 70 66 59 49 43 39 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 8 11 16 28 35 35 31 22 21 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 1 9 5 6 -2 -8 -6 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 156 195 200 218 235 256 280 290 301 317 296 264 265 SST (C) 27.6 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.1 23.8 22.4 22.6 23.2 23.3 23.1 23.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 122 117 110 100 90 88 91 92 91 96 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 109 105 99 88 79 75 77 78 78 84 96 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 7 6 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 700-500 MB RH 48 50 52 48 47 52 51 47 40 39 32 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 31 30 30 26 20 15 10 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -7 22 10 2 -1 -10 -56 -54 -14 -19 -19 -27 200 MB DIV 94 77 67 69 59 16 -1 -11 -18 -8 -19 -20 -12 700-850 TADV 5 22 2 8 6 17 15 12 16 15 -6 -24 -27 LAND (KM) 1392 1295 1196 1064 948 968 1225 1410 1519 1636 1791 1968 2029 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.4 35.8 37.2 38.5 40.6 40.9 40.5 39.9 39.5 39.2 37.4 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 55.6 54.3 52.1 49.9 44.5 40.1 37.8 36.8 35.5 33.6 32.8 33.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 20 22 23 20 13 7 5 6 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -25. -31. -36. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -2. -3. -10. -25. -42. -55. -64. -68. -69. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 6( 18) 4( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)