* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 41 36 34 30 26 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 40 35 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 22 26 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 227 243 234 236 247 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.8 30.8 30.5 29.7 25.9 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 170 170 169 160 121 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 6 9 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 57 54 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 9 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 1 -8 5 12 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 40 5 -3 5 23 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 3 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 23 48 24 -18 -79 -210 -364 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.7 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 113.4 113.2 112.8 112.4 111.8 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 33 42 61 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -24. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -9. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. -33. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##