* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 66 74 78 79 75 71 66 61 53 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 62 66 74 78 79 75 71 66 61 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 62 68 77 83 83 79 73 68 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 5 5 13 21 15 21 21 17 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 1 3 5 3 -1 6 0 7 SHEAR DIR 36 36 47 51 54 76 77 73 56 75 87 90 97 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 160 158 155 152 151 149 147 141 137 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 11 8 9 6 9 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 74 71 70 68 67 65 61 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 21 22 23 22 23 24 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 14 24 28 33 38 29 42 77 63 52 44 44 50 200 MB DIV 111 95 97 116 96 71 55 62 35 11 30 -7 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 380 337 296 258 212 221 220 256 299 271 181 238 278 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.3 18.4 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.5 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.6 102.4 103.2 103.9 105.4 106.8 107.8 108.5 109.5 110.9 112.4 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 38 35 34 31 22 18 24 34 22 7 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 7. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 29. 33. 34. 30. 26. 21. 16. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 32% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##