* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 74 69 58 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 74 69 58 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 72 70 67 61 52 45 40 38 37 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 11 17 22 33 35 36 24 25 27 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 7 9 7 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 138 186 223 237 247 265 282 289 306 295 308 294 283 SST (C) 27.1 26.4 25.9 25.1 24.0 23.2 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 121 117 110 102 95 90 89 91 94 94 96 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 108 104 99 91 83 78 75 77 81 81 82 89 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 4 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 50 51 47 44 48 50 50 45 45 35 34 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 31 31 30 28 22 17 11 8 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 14 13 7 5 -11 -32 -74 -8 -9 -11 -8 -14 200 MB DIV 81 69 59 34 23 27 -7 -12 -12 -18 -27 -24 -18 700-850 TADV 28 15 17 8 7 21 16 17 26 -13 -11 -11 -12 LAND (KM) 1279 1202 1057 959 914 1101 1327 1451 1519 1684 1969 1971 1937 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.8 37.2 38.4 39.6 40.6 40.4 40.2 39.9 39.2 37.9 36.4 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 54.1 52.3 49.8 47.4 42.3 39.1 37.5 36.8 35.1 32.3 31.4 31.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 22 23 21 16 9 5 5 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -27. -33. -37. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -16. -22. -25. -25. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -11. -22. -39. -55. -68. -75. -78. -78. -80. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 3( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)