* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 65 65 61 56 54 49 46 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 65 65 61 56 54 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 53 55 59 61 60 58 55 52 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 9 12 15 21 19 21 20 16 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 9 6 6 4 3 2 1 -1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 43 63 39 42 65 61 64 70 70 94 98 93 106 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 157 157 155 152 151 148 144 139 134 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 11 9 9 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 78 75 73 74 69 73 69 68 64 60 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 21 22 21 20 20 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 20 25 28 36 34 23 55 57 63 38 54 46 54 200 MB DIV 78 85 110 74 68 81 52 35 56 -2 34 -3 16 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -4 -5 -6 -5 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 1 LAND (KM) 315 273 234 199 186 172 215 265 306 201 191 267 331 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.3 103.0 103.7 104.3 105.8 107.1 108.1 109.0 110.2 111.6 112.8 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 32 31 27 19 19 32 31 11 6 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 20. 20. 16. 11. 9. 4. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##