* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 77 72 57 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 77 72 57 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 77 74 70 60 51 45 42 40 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 18 25 30 34 28 20 26 33 40 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 11 9 10 5 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 228 218 238 241 248 274 281 303 309 295 286 283 285 SST (C) 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.5 24.1 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.5 24.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 111 105 101 93 92 91 91 92 94 99 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 99 94 89 81 78 77 77 79 81 85 91 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 50 47 44 47 49 49 47 42 39 31 31 32 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 32 30 25 19 13 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 3 0 -4 -29 -64 -35 9 -2 -2 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 53 53 49 10 13 11 -32 -8 8 -20 -12 -29 -21 700-850 TADV 30 20 8 14 15 9 13 24 21 -16 -20 -22 -15 LAND (KM) 1198 1085 978 971 1014 1214 1374 1491 1603 1762 1989 2021 2029 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 37.0 38.2 39.0 39.8 40.2 40.0 39.9 39.8 39.1 37.5 36.0 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 52.3 50.0 47.4 44.9 41.0 38.8 37.2 35.7 34.1 32.4 32.2 33.1 STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 22 21 18 11 7 6 6 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -29. -34. -38. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -14. -20. -24. -25. -24. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -8. -23. -40. -55. -65. -72. -76. -80. -82. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 4( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)