* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 66 70 73 72 68 63 60 54 49 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 66 70 73 72 68 63 60 54 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 60 62 66 67 66 63 59 55 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 10 12 17 13 11 22 19 14 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 5 4 6 5 9 -3 2 1 10 0 SHEAR DIR 59 42 24 55 69 76 85 59 72 72 80 88 98 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 157 156 153 152 150 147 143 138 135 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -50.9 -51.5 -50.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 8 10 7 9 6 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 76 73 72 71 68 68 63 63 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 21 22 22 23 23 22 24 25 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 39 40 28 43 54 66 49 46 37 42 33 200 MB DIV 79 93 77 72 73 67 42 59 -1 18 9 5 0 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 241 216 162 157 166 169 196 256 276 209 228 290 312 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.8 103.5 104.2 104.9 106.2 107.1 108.1 109.3 110.6 111.8 112.9 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 32 34 29 18 20 30 18 10 10 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 5. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 22. 18. 13. 10. 4. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##