* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 74 77 77 75 71 65 58 52 44 37 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 74 77 77 75 71 65 58 52 44 37 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 73 78 81 83 80 75 68 61 56 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 13 17 19 20 20 19 15 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 34 43 77 73 77 79 88 76 88 87 83 96 114 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 153 151 151 147 144 141 135 129 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 73 70 70 68 67 61 59 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 35 23 21 44 59 56 31 43 30 41 26 200 MB DIV 94 73 78 77 64 27 40 38 8 19 7 5 8 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -7 -6 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 217 202 206 203 200 248 336 334 295 298 388 404 435 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.2 105.0 105.6 106.1 107.2 108.7 109.7 110.6 111.8 113.5 114.7 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 6 7 7 5 5 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 27 21 17 17 21 20 14 10 6 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 404 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 17. 15. 11. 5. -2. -8. -16. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##