* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 79 79 82 77 74 67 58 47 36 26 V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 79 79 82 77 74 67 58 47 36 26 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 77 81 83 82 78 72 64 56 50 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 21 22 18 24 24 19 21 21 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 3 4 4 6 2 7 0 8 0 6 SHEAR DIR 69 81 73 64 56 64 67 76 75 97 91 114 112 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 152 151 149 151 149 143 139 135 131 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 8 7 7 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 69 69 69 67 63 57 54 49 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 19 18 20 19 20 20 19 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 18 14 23 43 56 37 31 27 21 12 6 200 MB DIV 71 85 92 57 56 35 47 14 25 -28 -2 -19 -11 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -7 -6 -4 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 243 240 245 245 253 281 331 356 308 340 404 439 481 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.9 105.5 106.0 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.7 111.3 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 23 19 17 17 19 20 10 11 6 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 351 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 4. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 14. 14. 17. 12. 9. 2. -7. -18. -29. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##