* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 64 57 48 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 64 57 48 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 65 60 55 46 41 39 38 38 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 25 30 31 32 26 16 21 32 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 15 13 5 1 0 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 248 261 274 279 288 305 307 299 273 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.2 23.5 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.0 22.8 22.4 22.5 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 96 93 91 90 91 91 88 88 96 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 90 84 81 78 76 78 78 76 76 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.7 -55.0 -55.6 -55.5 -55.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 45 46 49 50 43 44 41 33 30 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 26 23 18 13 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -17 -32 -29 -51 -75 -39 0 0 21 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 37 32 11 -11 -8 -15 -11 -11 -29 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 14 22 13 14 10 21 17 0 -11 -18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 972 1045 1144 1240 1340 1471 1590 1782 1856 1760 1807 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.3 40.3 40.1 40.0 39.7 39.1 38.0 36.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.7 44.4 42.1 40.6 39.0 37.3 35.7 33.3 30.7 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 18 15 12 10 6 8 10 9 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 25 CX,CY: 23/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -29. -34. -37. -39. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -18. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -27. -44. -58. -68. -75. -79. -84. -86. -88. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)