* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 40 46 51 52 54 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 40 46 51 52 54 55 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 39 41 43 42 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 6 9 10 13 11 16 18 19 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 1 0 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 65 64 34 334 329 286 291 281 261 245 241 236 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 132 132 131 134 136 135 135 133 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 129 128 129 128 131 133 131 130 126 121 118 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 72 67 67 64 61 62 61 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 10 12 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 58 65 71 67 57 44 41 48 42 57 37 30 17 200 MB DIV 64 37 29 26 8 7 38 36 -12 2 0 -5 1 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -4 0 2 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 211 252 308 377 452 631 801 1005 1213 1416 1586 1724 1807 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.9 22.7 24.6 26.7 28.7 30.6 32.2 33.5 34.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 9 9 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 4 4 7 6 7 14 16 20 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 20. 26. 31. 32. 34. 35. 35. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/18/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)