* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 64 65 59 54 45 41 29 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 64 65 59 54 45 41 29 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 67 66 62 58 53 48 43 38 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 21 22 21 30 26 24 19 26 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 5 -1 0 1 2 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 73 71 56 48 60 67 86 103 108 95 104 115 119 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 151 150 150 150 147 142 138 134 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 71 70 69 66 60 56 51 48 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 17 16 19 18 17 15 16 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 10 19 24 40 45 25 35 31 22 13 13 200 MB DIV 73 63 59 71 64 34 6 2 15 24 -24 -1 0 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -6 -5 -2 0 0 -2 0 2 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 246 252 250 248 260 303 365 322 283 327 387 416 473 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.5 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.9 109.0 110.2 111.4 112.6 113.6 114.6 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 28 20 17 17 17 20 18 10 12 5 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -8. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -6. -11. -20. -24. -36. -44. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##