* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 43 48 51 52 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 43 48 51 52 54 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 39 41 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 8 8 10 10 9 13 15 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 0 5 2 1 3 0 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 69 39 336 326 314 287 290 270 261 244 234 236 250 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 131 134 135 137 136 135 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 129 130 130 128 131 131 133 132 130 123 120 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 72 69 66 64 62 64 59 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 61 59 46 43 35 34 41 41 52 25 24 4 200 MB DIV 36 24 19 10 12 7 44 0 -14 4 -10 10 2 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 0 0 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 211 264 332 409 493 670 849 1041 1254 1466 1656 1824 1938 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.3 23.1 25.1 27.0 29.0 31.0 32.8 34.4 35.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 4 4 7 6 8 13 17 20 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. 32. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/18/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)