* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 65 62 58 51 45 36 24 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 65 62 58 51 45 36 24 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 63 59 55 50 45 41 36 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 19 22 20 24 26 24 15 21 22 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 7 5 5 0 2 2 7 -1 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 45 51 67 57 73 92 101 101 94 114 110 111 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 150 151 149 144 139 137 130 125 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 68 65 64 56 57 52 53 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 21 20 19 18 17 15 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 29 31 33 56 40 38 31 35 27 17 5 200 MB DIV 64 84 74 68 54 16 4 25 3 12 -10 2 -4 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -5 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 1 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 245 226 214 230 251 297 330 249 242 291 313 339 407 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.5 114.5 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 16 16 18 16 12 12 12 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -20. -29. -41. -49. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##