* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 51 43 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 51 43 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 55 51 48 43 41 40 40 41 42 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 32 34 30 25 15 21 31 39 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 4 -3 -3 0 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 269 279 287 288 309 317 291 284 278 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.8 25.3 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 95 94 92 92 91 91 92 97 108 118 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 80 78 78 78 79 80 84 94 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 3 3 2 1 0 1 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 49 47 45 43 40 33 30 33 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 22 19 17 13 9 9 10 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -42 -65 -66 -83 -45 2 -14 22 33 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 19 -4 -13 -18 -22 -8 -19 -32 -19 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 10 14 15 8 23 14 -5 -22 -13 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1256 1354 1412 1470 1582 1751 1948 1831 1723 1753 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.8 39.7 39.9 39.5 38.2 36.2 34.0 31.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.2 40.8 39.3 38.5 37.7 35.9 33.9 31.6 29.8 29.8 31.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 6 7 7 9 12 11 12 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -14. -19. -20. -20. -22. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -29. -43. -52. -57. -60. -65. -67. -68. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED