* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 45 51 56 57 58 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 45 51 56 57 58 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 39 44 49 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 10 1 10 8 5 7 8 8 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 4 1 -2 1 1 2 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 112 3 1 7 294 295 291 289 249 223 219 215 178 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 132 133 134 135 136 136 135 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 129 129 128 128 128 129 129 130 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 72 70 68 66 63 60 58 54 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 11 10 11 10 10 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 74 70 58 52 45 46 43 38 35 25 8 2 -2 200 MB DIV 29 10 1 23 34 66 26 28 24 3 0 19 -8 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -5 -9 -2 -5 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 276 339 410 486 568 719 866 1022 1170 1299 1429 1533 1618 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 23.6 25.2 26.7 28.1 29.3 30.5 31.5 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 7 11 13 15 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 25. 31. 36. 37. 38. 36. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/18/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)