* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 62 61 53 51 44 39 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 62 61 53 51 44 39 29 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 62 60 55 50 44 39 34 29 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 19 21 28 23 22 19 25 19 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 7 5 0 3 4 4 4 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 54 66 62 71 84 99 104 111 113 120 122 119 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.4 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 151 149 145 140 138 133 125 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 66 63 57 55 51 50 48 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 21 21 18 20 19 18 14 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 37 41 49 57 34 44 32 38 23 17 1 200 MB DIV 87 81 70 52 42 10 10 0 11 6 -5 18 9 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -2 0 -3 -2 1 4 5 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 211 199 211 240 269 326 245 231 261 303 309 384 468 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 22.7 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.2 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.8 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.2 114.3 115.3 116.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 16 17 17 12 13 13 4 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 2. 2. -1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -9. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -3. -4. -12. -13. -21. -26. -36. -44. -54. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##