* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 40 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 40 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 51 48 45 42 40 39 40 41 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 32 30 30 19 18 33 43 44 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 -3 0 -4 -3 -1 -3 -5 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 283 286 292 295 331 296 277 276 270 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.3 22.9 22.4 22.5 24.1 25.5 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 92 92 92 91 88 89 99 110 117 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 78 77 78 78 77 78 86 95 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.3 -54.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 46 43 42 45 35 30 31 31 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 20 18 15 10 10 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -57 -62 -83 -73 3 -19 5 28 43 54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 2 -18 -8 -18 -10 -7 -15 -29 -24 -34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 18 14 9 13 20 -13 -29 -31 -21 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1371 1449 1505 1561 1718 1911 1802 1779 1708 1722 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.8 39.5 38.1 35.8 33.5 31.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.1 38.9 37.8 37.0 36.3 34.1 31.5 29.9 29.4 29.9 31.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 6 7 9 9 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -16. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -27. -39. -45. -49. -54. -60. -64. -65. -66. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/19/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)