* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 31 38 46 51 52 51 54 57 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 31 38 46 51 52 51 54 57 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 37 39 42 44 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 3 5 10 9 8 6 11 11 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 6 5 -2 -1 2 2 0 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 24 12 354 317 312 282 253 253 203 166 127 110 128 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 130 130 131 132 133 131 131 132 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 128 126 124 124 124 124 122 120 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 67 66 65 63 58 55 51 52 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 13 15 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 70 66 63 61 52 60 59 44 10 7 -5 -11 200 MB DIV 13 11 26 25 49 26 29 30 -6 -10 -4 -4 6 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 355 425 501 575 631 746 854 951 1012 1043 1070 1116 1165 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.8 24.1 25.2 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 7 7 8 8 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 26. 31. 32. 31. 34. 37. 40. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/19/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED