* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 56 55 49 45 35 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 56 55 49 45 35 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 54 52 48 43 38 34 29 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 20 25 21 21 18 22 22 23 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 6 4 0 5 1 5 1 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 54 72 64 67 71 92 104 98 101 112 118 119 125 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 151 147 143 139 136 130 125 122 122 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 7 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 65 64 62 54 53 48 49 45 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 19 17 18 15 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 42 49 53 40 30 29 33 23 18 11 0 200 MB DIV 77 67 35 37 14 4 10 4 10 -4 -3 6 6 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 1 0 -2 0 1 2 4 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 183 201 223 236 256 279 216 264 321 376 458 533 586 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.5 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.7 107.2 107.6 108.0 109.2 110.8 112.0 112.9 114.2 115.8 116.7 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 7 7 5 5 7 6 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 19 22 13 12 13 11 3 5 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -11. -15. -25. -34. -44. -53. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##