* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 53 52 52 48 42 34 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 53 52 52 48 42 34 25 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 56 54 49 43 38 34 29 25 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 21 25 26 15 20 15 21 16 19 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 4 0 4 4 4 4 2 4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 76 74 80 81 89 109 108 115 119 125 125 132 134 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 150 148 145 140 136 129 123 122 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 70 65 64 63 58 56 53 51 48 46 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 17 16 17 20 19 18 16 12 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 46 56 50 34 43 33 42 25 20 9 11 200 MB DIV 49 25 30 23 11 13 5 19 3 6 8 5 -8 700-850 TADV -6 0 1 1 -1 -1 2 3 6 5 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 201 215 231 271 314 200 181 260 303 375 457 528 564 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.3 107.7 108.3 108.8 110.0 111.2 112.6 113.9 115.1 116.1 116.9 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 22 23 16 10 11 7 1 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 5. 4. 2. 0. -5. -9. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -12. -18. -26. -35. -43. -52. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##