* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 55 52 45 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 55 52 45 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 56 53 47 40 34 29 24 21 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 26 31 30 30 23 26 24 23 20 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 6 0 -3 0 0 3 -4 1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 70 63 68 82 93 103 115 111 124 125 130 129 106 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 147 143 139 133 127 124 123 120 123 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 62 61 56 56 50 50 47 47 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 17 15 15 12 9 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 59 50 37 28 25 29 20 9 1 -5 8 200 MB DIV 34 41 39 20 -5 13 0 10 2 9 0 -4 -17 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -3 -2 0 2 2 4 2 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 208 229 266 313 268 198 224 288 341 428 536 591 607 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 110.6 111.9 113.1 114.4 115.6 116.8 117.3 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 25 17 11 12 11 5 3 2 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -18. -20. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -10. -14. -16. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -22. -34. -46. -55. -64. -69. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##