* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 52 52 52 52 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 48 52 52 52 52 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 46 48 50 51 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 2 5 4 7 7 10 9 17 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 2 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 315 341 321 220 191 217 218 224 255 251 254 279 275 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 130 130 130 129 128 125 121 117 116 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 123 123 122 121 120 119 115 111 107 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 60 56 56 53 53 50 47 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 46 41 46 58 59 59 67 54 43 34 51 55 53 200 MB DIV 3 6 10 14 33 56 51 46 65 37 61 27 2 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 3 0 4 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 519 578 644 700 758 862 956 1052 1160 1272 1353 1447 1536 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 21.8 22.5 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.3 30.0 30.8 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 27. 27. 27. 27. 24. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/20/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED