* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 46 43 38 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 46 43 38 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 47 44 38 33 27 23 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 28 29 27 19 25 21 22 15 17 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 -1 -3 1 4 5 -1 3 0 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 78 85 92 104 103 102 111 129 133 127 132 107 102 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 147 144 139 135 128 122 120 121 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 55 53 52 47 46 41 41 38 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 13 11 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 37 26 34 29 25 27 19 20 10 21 36 200 MB DIV 15 16 7 -2 26 25 -14 -10 -5 2 1 -13 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 0 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 239 277 294 232 191 189 251 299 376 434 474 536 606 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.6 22.3 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.6 110.3 111.5 112.7 114.0 115.2 115.9 116.3 116.8 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 14 9 11 10 5 2 2 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -28. -39. -50. -57. -64. -66. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##