* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 46 45 43 40 36 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 46 45 43 40 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 42 44 44 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 7 8 11 7 9 11 17 24 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -4 -3 -4 0 2 0 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 199 271 211 212 217 220 255 225 251 246 259 260 265 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 128 128 128 128 123 119 115 114 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 121 119 119 119 119 114 109 105 102 102 101 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 57 55 50 48 45 43 39 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 11 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 57 58 61 59 55 40 31 30 31 33 36 200 MB DIV -4 7 13 21 46 65 62 53 26 9 27 -4 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 5 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 523 583 650 701 753 859 966 1077 1180 1288 1359 1422 1452 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.4 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 5 3 4 4 2 3 6 7 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 20. 18. 15. 11. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/20/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)