* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 32 30 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 26 28 27 21 24 20 21 17 17 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 0 0 1 4 0 1 -1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 83 89 98 101 111 116 124 129 130 129 124 98 97 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 144 141 137 131 127 125 125 125 127 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 62 57 55 55 51 48 46 45 43 43 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 37 25 33 37 21 28 17 22 9 15 18 25 200 MB DIV 11 12 5 19 9 10 6 -12 11 6 -11 -12 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 2 3 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 271 272 215 179 171 229 281 317 363 414 466 528 588 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.4 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.3 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.0 109.6 110.2 110.9 112.1 113.2 114.0 114.6 115.1 115.5 115.8 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 12 8 10 12 9 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -23. -34. -44. -52. -57. -62. -64. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##