* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 09/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 29 27 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 13 14 17 20 20 25 35 44 56 62 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 0 -2 -7 -7 -6 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 195 209 210 212 200 233 238 256 246 243 242 245 251 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 122 118 115 110 107 106 109 112 113 113 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 116 113 109 106 101 97 95 98 101 103 104 98 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 58 56 51 46 45 45 46 44 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 35 39 44 29 10 -4 -7 -11 -13 0 2 200 MB DIV 15 29 37 41 49 45 28 12 31 17 7 17 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 5 0 -9 -16 -15 -13 LAND (KM) 400 458 519 590 664 802 852 881 855 759 656 469 242 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.5 19.9 21.2 22.6 24.0 25.5 27.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.1 24.2 25.1 25.5 25.2 24.0 22.1 19.1 15.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 8 10 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -4. -10. -17. -24. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. 0. -6. -13. -20. -25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 09/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 09/20/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED