* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 35 33 31 27 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 30 25 24 25 19 21 17 16 13 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 103 103 110 113 119 124 128 135 131 122 106 95 98 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 140 139 133 128 127 126 126 126 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 54 51 47 46 45 45 44 46 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 37 26 20 34 18 18 5 10 18 22 35 200 MB DIV 3 17 5 2 1 10 -4 10 -1 -17 -3 -7 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 2 2 3 6 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 237 183 153 173 218 273 312 387 454 499 499 562 667 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.4 22.1 21.7 21.4 21.4 20.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.9 110.5 111.2 111.9 113.0 113.9 114.7 115.2 115.5 115.5 115.8 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 12 11 8 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -21. -29. -37. -43. -47. -50. -51. -49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##