* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 27 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 21 21 24 20 19 14 15 17 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 1 -6 0 -3 0 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 109 112 118 112 132 131 129 120 104 102 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 139 136 131 130 128 127 130 133 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 5 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 52 49 47 47 50 47 49 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 23 14 23 19 11 5 3 9 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 5 7 9 20 -3 7 1 6 -22 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 4 2 6 1 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 171 140 138 170 208 285 365 411 437 484 562 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.4 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.1 20.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.2 110.8 111.5 112.1 113.3 114.0 114.5 114.8 114.8 114.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 10 10 7 4 2 4 4 4 5 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -12. -19. -27. -33. -38. -41. -43. -43. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##