* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 59 68 77 82 86 90 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 59 68 77 82 86 90 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 34 41 50 61 72 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 21 19 17 15 7 5 7 6 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 30 28 32 39 44 49 48 29 54 66 58 70 79 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 154 156 158 160 160 159 154 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 8 6 8 6 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 77 77 77 76 74 78 79 80 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 11 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 16 24 18 22 23 24 22 19 15 28 29 200 MB DIV 51 71 85 79 53 39 43 59 39 47 56 41 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 401 400 411 427 405 356 361 372 399 427 437 450 480 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.3 15.2 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.1 94.6 95.1 95.6 96.4 97.4 98.6 100.2 102.2 104.2 106.1 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 30 27 24 25 25 21 31 33 32 37 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 29. 39. 48. 57. 62. 66. 70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##