* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 32 30 27 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 24 21 21 19 15 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -5 -4 -3 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 113 128 133 139 147 125 116 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 132 130 128 127 127 126 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 47 44 43 41 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 29 23 16 14 2 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 17 6 -13 -23 -7 -13 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 6 4 5 6 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 241 281 317 359 452 550 634 707 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.2 21.8 21.2 20.6 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.4 115.3 116.0 116.5 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -36. -37. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##