* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 58 67 77 83 90 93 97 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 58 67 77 83 90 93 97 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 48 56 65 75 83 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 19 18 14 8 7 6 8 11 9 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 29 33 35 40 34 34 40 27 25 41 41 59 321 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 154 156 157 160 159 160 158 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 76 74 75 72 76 76 80 79 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 10 13 15 18 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 2 11 15 10 11 26 17 28 20 20 23 32 48 200 MB DIV 54 61 79 55 52 52 65 84 76 80 60 54 61 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 431 440 428 395 366 346 354 383 408 426 411 428 445 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.0 95.5 95.9 96.3 97.2 98.2 99.6 101.3 103.2 105.1 106.8 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 23 23 24 27 23 25 37 31 31 23 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 11. 13. 18. 20. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 33. 42. 52. 58. 65. 68. 72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##