* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 31 29 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 20 20 13 15 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -5 -1 -3 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 131 140 152 152 141 125 116 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 124 122 121 123 124 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 46 44 43 44 40 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 25 20 13 10 -5 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 0 -16 -13 -8 -10 -12 -27 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 5 6 2 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 230 249 285 334 385 484 554 635 716 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.9 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.3 22.0 21.4 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.6 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 6 0 0 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -26. -34. -41. -45. -48. -49. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##