* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 46 56 65 74 77 81 86 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 35 39 45 52 60 67 74 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 11 11 9 9 11 9 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 26 29 31 35 43 53 31 42 38 62 51 51 347 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 156 157 159 160 160 156 149 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 75 75 75 73 77 79 80 79 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 8 9 11 13 14 15 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 10 10 17 19 16 16 13 17 36 45 54 200 MB DIV 66 81 59 44 46 52 59 56 49 62 42 17 40 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 485 445 412 392 374 370 392 427 441 444 473 534 596 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.5 99.8 101.5 103.6 105.7 107.6 109.1 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 11 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 21 23 21 27 36 31 37 20 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 21. 31. 40. 49. 52. 56. 61. 64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##