* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 25 24 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 19 20 21 14 17 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 137 145 147 156 139 125 123 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 124 124 125 125 125 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 42 42 41 42 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 14 8 12 2 7 7 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -14 -6 -14 0 -8 -12 -9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 3 6 4 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 308 352 397 443 534 617 708 795 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.3 21.8 21.2 20.4 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.2 114.8 115.3 115.7 116.4 116.9 117.3 117.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 1 4 3 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -38. -42. -45. -45. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##