* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 33 44 54 65 70 76 80 84 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 33 44 54 65 70 76 80 84 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 39 45 52 58 63 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 19 17 11 10 8 13 11 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 -2 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 26 27 33 41 42 46 31 26 47 58 18 279 301 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 157 160 159 160 159 152 148 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 75 76 75 76 76 80 79 78 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 9 11 13 13 16 17 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 13 22 26 14 22 11 17 32 42 46 48 200 MB DIV 93 59 54 67 66 53 64 49 60 41 34 12 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 467 434 405 385 366 354 386 409 404 413 434 500 443 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.9 16.0 17.1 18.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.9 97.4 97.8 98.3 99.4 100.8 102.7 104.8 106.7 108.3 109.8 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 7 8 10 11 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 20 21 21 26 37 32 30 22 11 13 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 12. 15. 18. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 8. 19. 29. 40. 45. 51. 55. 59. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##