* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 52 64 73 79 84 87 91 93 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 52 64 73 79 84 87 91 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 55 62 69 74 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 20 20 17 13 11 10 11 7 6 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 30 38 41 45 54 36 37 35 65 43 343 310 275 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 156 157 156 154 153 149 146 143 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 76 77 75 78 79 80 77 76 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 9 12 13 14 16 18 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 23 26 16 9 7 18 24 34 37 37 36 200 MB DIV 51 51 66 53 50 60 48 56 56 33 14 38 8 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 439 421 403 399 403 430 465 469 494 506 582 589 545 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.1 99.6 100.9 102.6 104.5 106.5 108.2 109.8 111.1 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 18 22 34 31 40 41 17 11 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 16. 27. 39. 48. 54. 59. 62. 66. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##