* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 65 73 79 81 85 88 92 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 65 73 79 81 85 88 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 61 69 75 79 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 18 17 16 13 14 15 11 10 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 40 44 50 63 58 52 48 62 58 56 20 338 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 153 152 150 148 140 141 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 80 77 78 77 78 75 73 69 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 17 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 23 12 2 3 9 14 34 40 40 46 43 200 MB DIV 51 68 62 49 39 67 49 72 17 25 -2 23 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 423 418 427 454 482 547 589 614 651 713 754 683 600 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 24 31 33 31 47 50 23 15 15 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 12. 13. 17. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 40. 48. 54. 56. 60. 63. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##