* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 66 67 68 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 66 67 68 68 71 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 39 43 47 52 56 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 20 20 17 16 14 11 5 7 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 40 46 47 47 43 43 50 50 55 37 25 327 295 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 159 157 155 151 149 145 144 142 142 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 77 78 78 76 80 75 74 69 66 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 26 17 13 3 16 17 30 26 23 22 6 200 MB DIV 67 60 30 33 39 36 43 36 32 -8 5 -3 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 256 271 287 307 327 374 407 443 521 619 618 534 424 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 34 31 29 27 31 19 12 12 15 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 41. 42. 43. 43. 46. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##