* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 58 58 60 61 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 58 58 60 61 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 40 44 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 23 24 23 20 19 15 9 7 4 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 48 47 46 48 49 48 48 56 54 25 73 33 194 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 153 152 150 147 144 142 145 145 140 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 81 77 78 79 76 78 75 73 68 64 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 11 15 9 10 17 25 36 27 21 6 0 200 MB DIV 63 36 21 46 46 39 41 13 9 -15 -2 0 4 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 0 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 327 347 368 395 414 488 532 569 632 593 588 568 536 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 31 30 31 47 29 14 12 15 9 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 29. 33. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##