* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 51 55 57 59 59 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 51 55 57 59 59 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 41 45 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 21 19 19 17 11 9 5 5 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 43 46 49 51 46 61 50 35 14 323 315 311 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 153 151 148 146 143 145 145 143 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 77 78 79 77 75 77 73 71 65 61 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 16 7 7 23 20 31 35 27 15 7 5 200 MB DIV 34 21 46 42 20 37 21 20 -14 -4 -9 -8 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 351 376 405 430 463 524 537 608 596 555 516 525 527 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 26 30 41 40 19 14 14 11 8 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 37. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##