* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 47 49 52 53 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 47 49 52 53 55 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 41 43 46 50 53 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 21 21 22 17 13 5 4 4 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 -1 2 -1 -2 0 -3 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 41 41 42 46 45 53 60 56 38 11 29 163 67 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 152 151 148 147 143 142 147 143 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 74 77 75 74 69 66 61 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 7 0 4 11 10 24 26 23 15 3 -5 200 MB DIV 43 51 50 34 44 45 21 27 -11 -18 -13 0 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 0 -3 0 -2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 356 395 441 456 483 540 570 616 628 588 576 561 547 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 28 33 42 43 21 15 15 13 9 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##