* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 45 46 47 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 39 42 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 25 23 23 19 18 11 8 6 4 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -5 -1 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 33 35 36 36 39 49 34 34 21 20 75 120 141 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 148 145 143 143 146 140 136 132 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 72 73 76 71 70 64 61 55 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 2 7 19 19 30 28 22 11 -1 -7 -13 200 MB DIV 55 46 33 48 36 21 8 -15 0 -3 -17 -6 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 345 384 410 434 465 499 588 617 564 568 591 582 609 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 30 38 38 18 14 15 11 6 2 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##