* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 09/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 38 40 43 45 45 45 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 38 40 43 45 45 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 25 23 20 15 10 8 5 2 8 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 34 37 43 51 53 30 12 345 347 267 284 251 247 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 144 145 145 147 142 134 127 122 118 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 74 74 69 67 59 55 47 42 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 3 19 37 35 36 37 26 21 14 28 24 10 24 200 MB DIV 31 36 38 33 0 -12 -17 14 -2 -15 -2 -10 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 391 409 425 440 478 503 440 416 425 359 307 235 160 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.2 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.3 22.2 22.9 24.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.0 108.9 110.6 112.0 113.1 114.0 114.4 114.5 114.5 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 24 17 14 14 20 16 10 4 3 2 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 09/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 09/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##