* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182014 09/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 35 39 42 44 43 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 35 39 42 44 43 43 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 37 39 40 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 19 16 12 8 6 5 7 7 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 -6 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 47 57 62 54 43 43 70 54 114 148 156 179 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 142 146 143 137 132 130 128 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 69 67 64 58 54 49 42 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 30 34 38 41 33 27 13 8 14 9 17 6 200 MB DIV 19 24 30 -5 -21 -10 -4 10 -3 16 -1 -17 4 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 1 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 490 507 530 572 625 617 619 646 650 634 610 587 575 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.4 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.3 112.1 113.8 114.9 115.6 116.1 116.5 116.7 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 5 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 25 17 16 15 14 9 5 3 1 4 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 13. 13. 11. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##