* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182014 09/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 38 39 42 45 48 49 49 48 46 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 38 39 42 45 48 49 49 48 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 38 39 41 43 45 47 47 48 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 20 16 13 11 8 5 5 5 11 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 -2 -5 -4 -5 -1 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 46 53 59 52 49 41 49 70 118 124 136 157 169 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 142 142 147 140 134 131 129 127 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 70 68 69 62 58 54 49 43 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 30 34 38 35 34 24 12 15 14 17 12 10 200 MB DIV 30 36 -2 -15 2 -19 5 4 15 9 1 0 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 511 534 584 624 652 627 660 688 671 651 657 617 564 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.1 109.2 110.1 111.0 112.8 114.5 115.4 115.8 116.1 116.7 116.7 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 9 7 4 3 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 34 19 17 15 15 12 7 4 3 1 7 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##