* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 09/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 27 26 26 24 23 24 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 27 26 26 24 23 24 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 10 13 16 19 21 24 24 30 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 0 1 1 1 2 4 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 232 225 224 235 240 238 239 252 271 260 273 278 288 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 134 133 131 131 129 130 130 132 135 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 123 124 123 120 120 117 117 118 120 123 125 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 36 36 35 36 37 38 41 42 44 45 46 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -20 -15 -24 -31 -32 -33 -33 -32 -39 -62 -88 200 MB DIV 15 13 13 1 11 16 5 21 3 15 -18 13 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 5 7 13 LAND (KM) 1346 1339 1330 1338 1348 1386 1434 1485 1519 1556 1589 1631 1626 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.7 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 44.3 44.5 44.8 45.0 45.3 45.7 46.0 46.3 46.6 47.1 47.9 48.9 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 23 21 17 13 11 11 13 21 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 09/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 09/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 09/25/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED