* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 39 42 45 46 43 41 38 33 30 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 39 42 45 46 43 41 38 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 41 43 45 45 45 44 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 16 13 11 10 5 7 10 11 15 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -6 -1 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 47 52 43 47 43 43 82 102 162 161 175 190 198 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 143 145 144 138 133 130 128 127 126 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 67 68 63 60 56 50 43 36 27 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 32 35 44 33 22 11 14 14 15 12 22 200 MB DIV 27 -1 -17 3 10 5 2 -2 0 8 0 -13 -24 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 524 561 612 641 600 600 637 645 636 614 588 549 498 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.1 110.0 111.0 111.9 113.5 114.7 115.5 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 16 16 15 10 6 3 2 1 1 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##