* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 09/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 28 27 28 29 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 28 27 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 11 13 16 18 19 19 20 22 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -1 -1 0 0 2 4 4 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 228 227 233 241 242 252 268 263 269 267 270 269 276 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 132 132 130 130 131 133 134 137 141 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 120 121 121 119 118 120 123 125 129 132 137 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 38 38 40 40 42 43 45 49 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -13 -20 -26 -25 -27 -26 -23 -22 -17 -15 -31 200 MB DIV 14 15 5 -1 -1 3 10 12 -2 -1 8 14 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 4 5 LAND (KM) 1367 1358 1349 1360 1371 1394 1395 1392 1357 1334 1313 1285 1159 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.2 44.4 44.5 44.7 45.0 45.4 45.9 46.9 48.0 49.6 51.2 53.2 STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 2 3 3 3 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 23 23 22 20 17 14 14 27 39 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 09/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 09/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 09/25/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)