* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 56 59 59 57 54 48 40 34 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 53 56 59 59 57 54 48 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 55 57 58 59 58 56 54 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 11 10 6 3 5 4 9 11 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -4 0 0 1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 43 44 48 49 53 61 138 171 144 192 200 223 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 145 147 141 136 132 129 127 125 121 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 68 68 61 59 52 46 38 32 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 9 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 31 39 36 31 23 12 18 14 21 18 14 200 MB DIV -6 -11 13 22 8 19 3 -5 12 -9 -26 -24 -22 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 569 621 654 624 612 622 628 573 525 482 450 369 281 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.8 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.1 111.1 112.0 112.9 114.2 115.0 115.4 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.2 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 3 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 14 14 10 6 3 1 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 9. 3. -5. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##